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Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market & Economy

In an exlusive interview on Fox 26 with Jose Grinon and Melissa Wilson discussing the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy.  I recently discussed this idea in much greater detail in an article entitled "The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy" wherein I stated:

"So, while the markets have surged to "all-time highs"  - for the majority of Americans who have little, or no, vested interest in the financial markets their view is markedly different.  While the mainstream analysts and economists keep hoping with each passing year that this will be the year the economy comes roaring back - the reality is that all the stimulus and financial support available from the Fed, and the government, can't put a broken financial transmission system back together again.  Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge.  My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."

Weak wage growth, elevated levels of unemployment, and rising prices for food and energy continue to chip away at the fabric of the American economy even though the Fed continues to inflate asset prices further.  The reality is that we are like inflating the next asset bubble as I discussed in early March of this year:

Don’t misunderstand me. As we wrote last week - it is certainly conceivable that the markets could attain all-time highs. The speculative appetite combined with the Fed’s liquidity is a powerful combination in the short term.  However, the increase in speculative risks combined with excess leverage leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future. 

The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put "fear" into an overly complacent marketplace.  There is currently no shortage of catalysts to pick from whether it is further fiscal policy missteps stemming from the upcoming "Debt Ceiling" debate, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, or an unexpected shock from an area yet to be on our radar. 

In the long term it will ultimately be the fundamentals that drive the markets.  Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of earnings, and economic strength, are not supportive of the speculative rise in asset prices or leverage.  The idea of whether, or not, the Federal Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who can ill afford to once again lose a large chunk of their net worth.  

It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now famous words: "Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau."  The clamoring of voices that the bull market is just beginning is telling much the same story.  History is repleat with market crashes that occurred just as the mainstream belief made heretics out of anyone who dared to contradict the bullish bias. 

Does an asset bubble currently exist?  Ask anyone and they will tell you "NO."  However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.

 

 

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