FBN Willis Report: Is It Really Just The Weather

I recently sat down with Gerri Willis at Fox Business News, along with Rick Sharga to discuss the economy and whether it is...

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Fox Business: The Rise In Margin Debt

Earlier this month I wrote an article detailing the rise in margin debt on the NYSE.  The rise in this case is particularly...

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MoneyLife Interview With Chuck Jaffe On "MyRA"

I recently wrote an article, following the President's State of the Union address, which discussed the new retirement savings...

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Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 7, 2014
10-warnings-signs-of-stock-market-exuberanceImagine that you are speeding down one of those long and lonesome stretches of highway that seems to fall off the edge of the horizon.  As the painted white lines become a blur, you notice a sign that says "Warning."  You look ahead...
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 4, 2014
50-profit-growth-and-historical-realitiesAs the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run valuation levels have everything to do...
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Interest Rate Predictions Meet Bob Farrell's Rule #9
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2014

Interest-Rates-Wages-GDP-CPI-042314 An interesting article hit my inbox this morning from WSJ MarketWatch which was titled "100% Of Economists Think Yields Will Rise Within 6 Months." From the article: "Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year. Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, po...

Read more...
Should You Consider A 2-Year College Degree
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2014

Education This week I’ve decided to cover a topic that really hits the pocketbook, not to mention the textbook.  And speaking of textbooks, did you know that the average annual cost of books your child will need to purchase is over $1,000. Of course, this is one cost that will be the same for both...

Read more...
CFNAI: Q1 Weakness Not Just A "Weather Report"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2014

There has been much "hope" by mainstream economists that the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of this year was simply due to the blast of inclement weather that shuttered production in much of the North East. While the "weather story" most certainly had a negative impact on economic ...

Read more...
The Earnings Season: "House Of Cards"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 21, 2014

Just like the hit series "House Of Cards," Wall Street earnings season has become rife with manipulation, deceit and obfuscation that could rival the dark corners of Washington, D.C. From time to time I do an analysis of the previous quarters earnings for the S&P 500 in order t...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Income Inequality
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2014

Since Easter is a time of family, compassion, forgiveness and resurrection, I thought this would be a good weekend to think about the income inequality/wealth gap which will be part of the mid-term election debate. There are many questions that must be answered from not only “how” to ...

Read more...
Historical Market Comparisons Are Meaningless
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 17, 2014

As Chief Strategist for STA Wealth Management I start each and every day by consuming copious amounts of a heavily caffeinated beverage and a data feed from a litany of web and blog sites. Over the last couple of days in particular, they have been numerous articles on whether the market is curren...

Read more...
Investors Warming Up To Equities Late As Usual
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2014

An interesting article this morning via Investment News caught my attention: "After watching the stock market climb from peak to peak last year, investors are finally starting to warm up to equities.   More than 85% of investors are feeling optimistic about the...

Read more...
Economy In Pictures (Update: 4-15-13)
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2014

I have written extensively about the data behind the headline media reports. I have also discussed the importance of the relationship between the underlying data trends relative to broader macroeconomic perspectives.  However, it is sometimes helpful just to view the various economic indicat...

Read more...
A Behavioral Cheat Sheet for Retirees
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 14, 2014

Recently, financial planning industry thought leader Michael Kitces CFP®, and professor of retirement income at the American College Wade D. Pfau Ph.D., CFA, penned a seminal work for the Journal of Financial Planning titled Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path. Duri...

Read more...
Stop "Affluenza" Cold - Go "Old School" On Your Kids
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 14, 2014

Are you worried that you teenage children may have acquired the dreaded diseases of "affluenza" or "entitlementia." The common traits of these sydromes are frequently found in speech patterns involving statements such as "I need...", "I want..." or "Gi...

Read more...
Interest Rate Predictions Meet Bob Farrell's Rule #9
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2014

Interest-Rates-Wages-GDP-CPI-042314 An interesting article hit my inbox this morning from WSJ MarketWatch which was titled "100% Of Economists Think Yields Will Rise Within 6 Months." From the article: "Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year. Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, po...

Read more...
The Earnings Season: "House Of Cards"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 21, 2014

Just like the hit series "House Of Cards," Wall Street earnings season has become rife with manipulation, deceit and obfuscation that could rival the dark corners of Washington, D.C. From time to time I do an analysis of the previous quarters earnings for the S&P 500 in order t...

Read more...
Historical Market Comparisons Are Meaningless
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 17, 2014

As Chief Strategist for STA Wealth Management I start each and every day by consuming copious amounts of a heavily caffeinated beverage and a data feed from a litany of web and blog sites. Over the last couple of days in particular, they have been numerous articles on whether the market is curren...

Read more...
Investors Warming Up To Equities Late As Usual
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2014

An interesting article this morning via Investment News caught my attention: "After watching the stock market climb from peak to peak last year, investors are finally starting to warm up to equities.   More than 85% of investors are feeling optimistic about the...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Is This "THE" Correction
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 11, 2014

On Tuesday of this past week I posted an article entitled "No One Rings A Bell At The Top" wherein I stated: "The current levels of investor complacency are more usually associated with late stage bull markets rather than the beginning of new ones. Of course, if you think...

Read more...
3 Things: Bank Loans, Interest Rates & The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 10, 2014

My friend Cullen Roche does a great series of posts called "Three Things I Think I Think." I wish I would have thought of the title first as it is apropo today's quick discussion on three issues that caught my attention today. 1) Bank Loans And Leases In a recent posting...

Read more...
3 Things: Bank Loans, Interest Rates & The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 10, 2014

My friend Cullen Roche does a great series of posts called "Three Things I Think I Think." I only wish I would have thought of the title first as it is apropos to today's discussion on three issues that caught my attention today. 1) Bank Loans And Leases In a recent post...

Read more...
Housing: Is It Really Just The Weather?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2014

Housing-New-OverUnderEst-022614 There is little argument that the economic data has been "weaker than expected" with the reason being quickly attributed to "the weather."  This has particularly been the case with regard to the recent housing data which has put a dent into the "housing recovery will drive future economic growt...

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Is Housing Set To Lift Off?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 18, 2014

Home-New-HouseholdDebt-021814 I have read several articles as of late suggesting that the housing recovery is likely to regain its footing in 2014 supporting further economic growth.  Gene Epstein penned the following for Barron's: "Snow paralyzed the Eastern U.S. last week, but it won't put a chill on what could be the ...

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An Update On The Housing Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2014

Home-Inventory-011614 In July of last year, I asked the question of whether housing was really recovering or not?  There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last few years as it relates to the economy and I thought it was time to update the data to see how far we have progressed.&nb...

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If Housing Is Booming - Why Do We Need Another Fix
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 06, 2013

Housing-Ownership-Renters-072513 President Obama recently stopped in Phoenix to deliver his latest diatribe on how he is going to fix the economy.  Yes, that is correct, another round of "campaign speeches" that, as has been the hallmark of this Administration to date, have generally wound up mired in abyss of a broken co...

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"Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul. 26, 2013

GDP-Not-Your-Fathers-Economy-072513-3 There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, e...

Read more...
Rising Rates Squash Housing Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul. 18, 2013

Mortgage-Apps-InterestRates-071713 Despite much media rhetoric to the contrary - I have stated many times in the past that rising interest rates will negatively impact the real estate market.  As I stated in "Chart Of The Day: Existing Home Sales:" "As I stated recently the optimism over the housing recovery has gotten well a...

Read more...
Has Real Estate Sales Activity Peaked?
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2013

GDP-Residential-Exports-Precent-042313 Over the last month I have been discussing the deterioration in the economic data (see here, here and here).  However, the one bright spot, economically speaking, has been real estate.  However, that "bright spot" has come with many caveats since much of the recovery in real estate has bee...

Read more...
CFNAI: Q1 Weakness Not Just A "Weather Report"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2014

There has been much "hope" by mainstream economists that the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of this year was simply due to the blast of inclement weather that shuttered production in much of the North East. While the "weather story" most certainly had a negative impact on economic ...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Income Inequality
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 18, 2014

Since Easter is a time of family, compassion, forgiveness and resurrection, I thought this would be a good weekend to think about the income inequality/wealth gap which will be part of the mid-term election debate. There are many questions that must be answered from not only “how” to ...

Read more...
Economy In Pictures (Update: 4-15-13)
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2014

I have written extensively about the data behind the headline media reports. I have also discussed the importance of the relationship between the underlying data trends relative to broader macroeconomic perspectives.  However, it is sometimes helpful just to view the various economic indicat...

Read more...
3 Things: Bank Loans, Interest Rates & The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 10, 2014

My friend Cullen Roche does a great series of posts called "Three Things I Think I Think." I wish I would have thought of the title first as it is apropo today's quick discussion on three issues that caught my attention today. 1) Bank Loans And Leases In a recent posting...

Read more...
3 Things: Bank Loans, Interest Rates & The Market
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 10, 2014

My friend Cullen Roche does a great series of posts called "Three Things I Think I Think." I only wish I would have thought of the title first as it is apropos to today's discussion on three issues that caught my attention today. 1) Bank Loans And Leases In a recent post...

Read more...
Anomaly In March NFIB Report
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 09, 2014

As regular readers of this site already know, I regularly analyze the data provided by the National Federation Of Independent Business monthly survey. As a small business owner, this data is crucial to digest and understand as it provides a real pulse of what is happening at "my" level ...

Read more...
Interview: Gary Shilling - 4 Years Of Deleveraging To Go
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 04, 2014

Gary-Shilling-2 Last night on "The Lance Roberts" show I had a chance to visit with my friend Dr. A. Gary Shilling, renowned economist, author and "keeper of bees" to discuss a wide variety of issues including: What is the real status of employment? Is the economy actually improving? Why the deleveraging cycle...

Read more...
Should You Consider A 2-Year College Degree
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2014

Education This week I’ve decided to cover a topic that really hits the pocketbook, not to mention the textbook.  And speaking of textbooks, did you know that the average annual cost of books your child will need to purchase is over $1,000. Of course, this is one cost that will be the same for both...

Read more...
A Behavioral Cheat Sheet for Retirees
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 14, 2014

Recently, financial planning industry thought leader Michael Kitces CFP®, and professor of retirement income at the American College Wade D. Pfau Ph.D., CFA, penned a seminal work for the Journal of Financial Planning titled Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path. Duri...

Read more...
Stop "Affluenza" Cold - Go "Old School" On Your Kids
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 14, 2014

Are you worried that you teenage children may have acquired the dreaded diseases of "affluenza" or "entitlementia." The common traits of these sydromes are frequently found in speech patterns involving statements such as "I need...", "I want..." or "Gi...

Read more...
Forget HFT: The 4 Greatest Risks To Investors Now
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 09, 2014

The financial media discussions regarding high-frequency trading have reached a fevered pitch. No pun intended as the igniter of this public relations flame is famous author of “Money Ball” Michael Lewis who has been making the television circuit promoting his new book “Flash Bo...

Read more...
The Zombie In Your 401K Plan
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Apr. 03, 2014

Zombie You've been "zombied" by the financial services industry and you don't even know it. Hey, I'm partially responsible; my intentions have been good, yet even the best of intentions can blow up in your face. You've been told repeatedly to save for retirement and...

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How Soon Should You Talk To Your Kids About Their Career
Written by Dr. Brook Zemel, Ph.D., LPC | Apr. 03, 2014

children-in-career-costume Choosing a career is one of the most important decisions your child will make in their lives. Yes, even more important than whether to go Android or iPhone. So, how do we normally handle this milestone (the career, not the phone)? Well, for most of us parents we wait for the decision to fall into...

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3 Things Most Financial Planners Do Wrong
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Mar. 28, 2014

MouseTrapWorks Three Things That Most Financial Planners do Wrong! Earlier this week, I plopped down into Lance Robert’s office for one of our famous 1-2 hour discussions on philosophy, the markets, taxes and the like and Lance asked me a great question “What are the three things that most financial planners ...

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S&P 500: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 02, 2013

Kimble-040213 ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM April 2, 2013 By: Chris Kimble Investors around the world are sitting on the edges of their seats, wondering if the S&P 500 will breakout or is making a giant 13-year triple top. Where should one look for answers or clues to the next big move in the broad m...

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Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
Written by | Aug. 20, 2012

80-20-portfolio-targeting-082012 Do you feel lucky?  That was the topic of this past weekend's missive as we wrote extensively on the current market environment and the technical setup behind the recent market "buy" signal.  That line from Dirty Harry (Click Here for Video) spawned many email questions, and comments, over the ...

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The Fear Gauge Goes Quiet
Written by | Aug. 17, 2012

vix-vs-sp500-081712 WALL STREET JOURNAL August 17, 2012 By: Spencer Jakab (Chart by Streettalklive.com) Wall Street's famous "fear gauge" is scraping along the bottom once again. Should that, counter-intuitively, spook investors? Not necessarily, although there probably are more fundamental reasons to wonder if...

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Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
Written by | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-qe-market-081512-3 There is a consensus as of late that the Fed will launch another round of stimulative action in the form of a balance sheet expansion program (Quantitative Easing) by the next FOMC meeting in September.  Of course, this was also the consensus before the June and August meetings - yet each disappoin...

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Doug Kass: Market Top Is Near
Written by | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-tripletop-081512 THESTREET.COM / REAL MONEY August 14, 2012 By: Doug Kass NEW YORK (Real Money) -- What I learned in my investment career is market participants prefer the comfort of crowds rather than the company of the remnants. Investors and traders, as demonstrated in recent years, seemingly prefer to buy st...

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Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
Written by | Aug. 08, 2012

sp500-marketupdate-080812 The markets have been rising recently on "hopes" that Central Bankers around the world will unite into one big giant "funding-palooza" and resolve the Eurozone crisis conclusively.  While the reality is that world wide bailouts will not resolve what ails the Eurozone - the markets are salivating at...

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Are Investors Really That Bearish?
Written by | Aug. 07, 2012

ici-equity-bond-flows-080712 I have read several articles as of late dicussing the excessive "bearishness" of investors, which from a contrarian point of view, is "bullish" for the stock market.  The general position is that investors are so bearish that they are now just hiding in bonds and stuffing cash into their mattresses...

Read more...