Real Estate

Housing: Is It Really Just The Weather?

There is little argument that the economic data has been "weaker than expected" with the reason being quickly attributed to "the weather."  This has particularly been the case with regard to the recent housing data which has put a dent into the "housing recovery will drive future economic growth" story.  However,  ...

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Is Housing Set To Lift Off?

I have read several articles as of late suggesting that the housing recovery is likely to regain its footing in 2014 supporting further economic growth.  Gene Epstein penned the following for Barron's: "Snow paralyzed the Eastern U.S. last week, but it won't put a chill on what could be the hottest economy since th ...

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An Update On The Housing Recovery

In July of last year, I asked the question of whether housing was really recovering or not?  There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last few years as it relates to the economy and I thought it was time to update the data to see how far we have progressed.  With each passing mon ...

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If Housing Is Booming - Why Do We Need Another Fix

President Obama recently stopped in Phoenix to deliver his latest diatribe on how he is going to fix the economy.  Yes, that is correct, another round of "campaign speeches" that, as has been the hallmark of this Administration to date, have generally wound up mired in abyss of a broken congressional system.   ...

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"Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?

There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, etc. are trumpeted as a si ...

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Rising Rates Squash Housing Recovery

Despite much media rhetoric to the contrary - I have stated many times in the past that rising interest rates will negatively impact the real estate market.  As I stated in "Chart Of The Day: Existing Home Sales:" "As I stated recently the optimism over the housing recovery has gotten well ahead of the underlying f ...

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Has Real Estate Sales Activity Peaked?

Over the last month I have been discussing the deterioration in the economic data (see here, here and here).  However, the one bright spot, economically speaking, has been real estate.  However, that "bright spot" has come with many caveats since much of the recovery in real estate has been through "cash only" pur ...

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Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed

Over the last few days I have been discussing a variety of different data points as they have been released concerning the current state of economic growth.  What is most concerning is the disconnect between the mainstream economist's, and analyst's, optimistic outlook which continues to diverge from the underlying dat ...

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Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten

As of late there has been a flood of commentary written about the housing recovery pointing to the bottom in housing and how the revival in housing will drive economic growth in the years ahead.  Just recently USA Today wrote:  "Six years since the start of the greatest housing collapse since the Great Depression, one d ...

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The Real Housing Recovery Story

Imagine that your financial advisor called you up one day and said: "Great news...your investment portfolio gained 1% in January which is an annualized return of 12%.  However, we have to subtract .05% from that return because historically January's return has only been 0.95% since 1950.  This brings our seasonally adju ...

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Housing, CPI And Why I Only Have A Nickel Left

In the daily download of economic data points two in particular jumped out at me - the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index and CPI.  While both reports were a positive for the economy in the short term - it was the broader aspect which sparked my curiosity. Home Builder Sentiment Ahead Of Fundamentals The release of t ...

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New Home Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines Suggest

"New U.S. single-family home sales surged in September to their highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years, further evidence the housing market recovery is gaining steam.  The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales increased 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 389,000-unit annual rate — the highest level since April 2010, wh ...

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Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May Be Premature

"The Most Bullish Development On The Entire Globe"- this was the always bullish Joe Weisenthal's headline this morning following the release of the New Home Starts and Building Permits data this morning.   "It's hard to think of a bigger bullish trend right now, at least in the short term," he stated.    That is indeed a  ...

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Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Recovery

"Chance has put in our way a most singular and whimsical problem, and its solution is its own reward." - Sherlock Holmes Very much like Sherlock Holmes, analysts everywhere are analyzing each and every data point relating to housing hoping that it is "the" conclusive bit of evidence that proves the long awaited housing re ...

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Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality

Every year for the past three years there have been recurring calls for a housing bottom and recovery. The importance of an eventual recovery in housing should not be dismissed as it is a critical component of an economic recovery due to the large multiplier effect of each dollar spent. The recovery in housing would signal  ...

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Housing And The Elusive Recovery

Over the past couple of weeks 14 of the 16 economic indicators that we watch from housing to employment to production have all missed estimates or have shown actual declines.  The reports have really not been kind when it comes to housing.  Today's release of pending home sales declined 0.5% versus expectations of a gain of ...

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Rising Costs And Profit Margins

Theoretically, stock prices are a reflection of the future expectations of earnings.  If the expectations are that earnings in the future will be "X" and currently stocks are trading at a discount to those future earnings prospects then stock prices should rise.  The issue today, however, is that those future earnings are n ...

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The Housing Recovery In One Index

There have been numerous media stories out over the last couple of weeks about the recovery in housing at long last.   Of course, this is the same housing bottom call that we heard in 2009, 2010 and 2011 - so why not drag it out again for 2012.  Eventually, the call will be right and they will be anointed with oils and proc ...

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Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't

You have to love the mainstream media.  With each and every data point that is released there is "hopium" sprinkled about as if a new age revolution is upon us.  Of course, in reality the data is just so bad from a historical standpoint that we ALL want the situation to get better.  Housing is a critical component of a long ...

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Home Prices Fall Further

We have been on a mission lately talking about the real issues within the housing market and why the endless calls for a housing bottom are likely to prove fruitless at the current time.  The issue which is continually overlooked by those hoping for a near term recovery is the psychological impact of a housing bust which ...

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