Think Like A Bear, Invest Like A Bull

I am traveling today but had some interesting questions posed to me during my recent presentation. However, one really drove to...

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Some Thoughts On Long Term Investing

The most valuable commodity that we all have is "time." While the markets may have recently hit "all-time" highs, for the...

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Fox 26: Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year

I spent a few minutes with my friends at Fox 26 Houston yesterday discussing the FOMC's recent two day meeting and why the Fed...

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Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors

Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how...

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The Math Of Loss

Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a...

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10 Investment Quotes To Live By

As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue...

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Rising Interest Rates & Long Term Stock Returns

With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous...

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The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?

There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs

This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 30, 2014
falling-energy-costs-and-economic-impacts "If you repeat a falsehood long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact." In the financial markets and economics it is a common occurrence that the media and commentators will latch on to a statement that supports a cognitive bias...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2015
5-charts-for-fully-invested-bearsYesterday, I discussed some interesting viewpoints relating to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. Part of that discussion was focused on a recent interview with famed Morgan Stanley strategist Gerard Minack who made a statement...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Aircraft Erudition
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 17, 2015

5-Things-Extra I am flying out to give a presentation to the Value Investor Forum in lovely Scottsdale, AZ. It's always fascinated that people move to a desert and then try to figure out how to irrigate it to grow grass. It all seems a little backward, but they do have some lovely golf courses. Speaking of seemin...

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3 Things: Retail Sales, Real Unemployment, Optimisim
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 16, 2015

Retail-Sales-ExAutoGas-Linear-041615 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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The Evil 1% And Failure To "Pay Their Fair Share"
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 15, 2015

99-Percent-1-Percent (Note: Throughout this article I will be addressing statements made by the current administration about taxation and the "rich." I am NOT MAKING a political argument about the adminstration; the statements are the foundation of the "tax the rich" debate.) Throughout the course of his Presidential t...

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Stocks: The Great Wealth Non-Equalizer
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 14, 2015

Fed-Survey-2013-BusinessEquityOwnership-091014 Just recently, IBD.com published a very interesting article entitle "Stock Market Is America's Great Wealth Equalizer." While I am sure the author is well-intentioned, it is a very misguided article in its assumptions. The author jumps right in with both feet: "It's sad, really, because those wh...

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Chart Of The Day: Volatility Ratio Warning
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 13, 2015

VIX-Mid-Short-Ratio-SP500-041315 The one thing that I love about writing a daily blog and a weekly newsletter is the thoughtful commentary AND criticism that I receive along the way. I have always solicited thoughtful discussions and, besides the few inevitable "trolls" that show up now and then, I have learned much from the "commu...

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5 Things To Ponder: Don't Fight The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 10, 2015

5-Things-Extra As I discussed earlier this week, the deterioration in both economic data and profitability data leave a good bit of cause for near-term concern for a Fed that is pushing to raise rates.  To wit: "However, with the economy currently growing at only slightly more than 2% annually, since ...

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3 Things: Value of Cash, Valuations, Red Flags
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 09, 2015

SP500-RecordHighs-022315 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 08, 2015

Dalbar-2015-QAIB-Performance-040815 Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how poorly investors perform relative to market benchmarks over time and the reasons for that underperformance. It is important to note that it is impossible for an investor...

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The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 07, 2015

Stocks-Bonds-Cash-5Yr-Returns-040715 In a recent interview with Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO Investments, a most interesting question was posed. "Q. Where is your money? Stocks? Treasuries? Bonds? A. It is mostly concentrated in cash. That’s not great, given that it gets eaten up by inflation. But I think most asset pric...

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Data Continues To Suggest Fed Should Remain On Hold
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 06, 2015

EOCI-1974-Prsent-LEI-040615 I had to chuckle on Sunday as I read an article by Josh Boak's via Business Insider, "2015 Has Broken Everyone's Assumptions So Far," which stated: "Yet all those common assumptions about how an economy thrives appear to have broken down during the first three months of 2015." If you have been...

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