Interview: Congressman Kevin Brady

I recently visited with Congressman Kevin Brady (R), Texas 8th District, about a variety of issues that face voters going into...

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The Market In Pictures - Mid-Year Update

In November of 2013, I did a chart analysis of the markets at the time. Now that we have passed the halfway point in 2014 I...

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CNBC: Why Q2 GDP Will Be Revised Down

I visited recently with CNBC Worldwide Exchange to discuss the Q2 GDP report and why I suspect that it will be revised down over...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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CNBC - Fed Won't Raise Rates For A Long Time

This morning, after quietly sneaking out of the house at an ungodly 3am, I visited with Ross Westgate on CNBC's World Wide...

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Why Market Bulls Should Hope Interest Rates Don't Rise

Yesterday, I participated in a panel discussion on CNBC about the markets and the economy.  It was during the course of that...

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FBN Willis Report: Is It Really Just The Weather

I recently sat down with Gerri Willis at Fox Business News, along with Rick Sharga to discuss the economy and whether it is...

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featured articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 16, 2014
could-stocks-melt-upOver the weekend, E.S. Browning wrote a very interesting article for The Wall Street Journal entitled: "Blast From The Past: Couple Stocks Melt Up?" "Money managers and analysts are beginning to talk about an idea that dates from the roaring...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 17, 2014
5-cognitive-biases-that-are-killing-your-returnsGeorge Dvorsky once wrote that: "The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence. But that doesn't mean our brains don't have major limitations. The lowly...

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The Eurozone Could Be A Problem For Stocks
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 02, 2014

GDP-US-EuroZone-081414 A few weeks ago I asked a simple question: "Can The U.S. Economy Stand Alone?" "The following chart is food for thought. There are extremely high expectations that the U.S. economy will achieve “lift off” in terms of economic growth eventually achieving 3-4% annualized growth rates. The chart...

Read more...
Interview: Congressman Kevin Brady
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2014

Kevin-Brady-Pic I recently visited with Congressman Kevin Brady (R), Texas 8th District, about a variety of issues that face voters going into the mid-term elections in November: Can conservatives recapture the Senate? If conservatives can gain control of the House and Senate will it change the previous course ...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Labor Day Edition
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2014

Sheet 1 The financial markets are set to wrap up the month with roughly a 3.5% gain, depending on where today's action ends, which is historically on the positive end of returns for the month. The histogram below shows the annual percentage change for the month of August.  Since 1930, there have been a...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 6)
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian to the consensus, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio manager and strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and...

Read more...
4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2014

Rosenberg-LEI-082714 David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the year-over-year trend in the LEI turns negative while the diffusion index falls below 30%. At three-months away, the LEI is down 1% YoY and the diffusion index nears 25%.  B...

Read more...
S&P 500 Hits Target Of 2000, Now What?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 26, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-SP500-082614 On Monday, the S&P 500 hit 2000 for the first time ever. This target was something I laid out very early this year following the Federal Reserve announcement in December that they would begin tapering the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program.  To wit: "This is something that I discus...

Read more...
Don't Fear Rising Interest Rates? Really?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 25, 2014

Historical-Returns-Stocks-Bonds-Cash-082514 There has been much commentary published as of late discussing when the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates. Generally, attached to the heels of that discussion, are comments suggesting that investors have nothing to fear from such an event. However, is that really the case? Much of t...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Interesting Stuff
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2014

SP500-CorrectionSizes-081414 I had to laugh this morning when I read Eddy Elfenbein's commentary on the recent market correction: "The vicious bear market that rocked Wall Street for a full two weeks has finally come to an end. Measuring from close to close, the S&P 500 plunged for a massive 3.94 loss between July 24 and...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 5)
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2014

Employment-FullTime-Population-082114-2 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian to the consensus, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio manager and strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and...

Read more...
Thought For The Day - The Illusion Of Strength
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2014

SP500-CorrectionSizes-081414 This morning a portfolio manager friend of mine sent me an interesting note discussing the current mental attitude of professional investors: "[There is] the resigned capitulation to the trend, going fully invested in order to survive, with low-risk paying nothing and 'low risk' being almost cert...

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The Eurozone Could Be A Problem For Stocks
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 02, 2014

GDP-US-EuroZone-081414 A few weeks ago I asked a simple question: "Can The U.S. Economy Stand Alone?" "The following chart is food for thought. There are extremely high expectations that the U.S. economy will achieve “lift off” in terms of economic growth eventually achieving 3-4% annualized growth rates. The chart...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Labor Day Edition
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2014

Sheet 1 The financial markets are set to wrap up the month with roughly a 3.5% gain, depending on where today's action ends, which is historically on the positive end of returns for the month. The histogram below shows the annual percentage change for the month of August.  Since 1930, there have been a...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 6)
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian to the consensus, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio manager and strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and...

Read more...
4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2014

Rosenberg-LEI-082714 David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the year-over-year trend in the LEI turns negative while the diffusion index falls below 30%. At three-months away, the LEI is down 1% YoY and the diffusion index nears 25%.  B...

Read more...
S&P 500 Hits Target Of 2000, Now What?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 26, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-SP500-082614 On Monday, the S&P 500 hit 2000 for the first time ever. This target was something I laid out very early this year following the Federal Reserve announcement in December that they would begin tapering the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program.  To wit: "This is something that I discus...

Read more...
Don't Fear Rising Interest Rates? Really?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 25, 2014

Historical-Returns-Stocks-Bonds-Cash-082514 There has been much commentary published as of late discussing when the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates. Generally, attached to the heels of that discussion, are comments suggesting that investors have nothing to fear from such an event. However, is that really the case? Much of t...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Interesting Stuff
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2014

SP500-CorrectionSizes-081414 I had to laugh this morning when I read Eddy Elfenbein's commentary on the recent market correction: "The vicious bear market that rocked Wall Street for a full two weeks has finally come to an end. Measuring from close to close, the S&P 500 plunged for a massive 3.94 loss between July 24 and...

Read more...
Problems In The Housing Market? Oracle Awakes To Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 05, 2014

Housing-VacantHomes-050514 For the last two years, I have regularly been updating our analysis of the housing market and why the much prophesied recovery was unlikely. (See here, here and here for examples.)  Yet, despite the hard data to the contrary, the mainstream analysis continued to beat the "housing is recovering"...

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Economists Stunned By Housing Fade, Told You So
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2014

Household-formation Since 2012, almost every economist has predicted that the housing recovery would continue into each coming year and would be a key driver of economic growth. That was again the plan for 2014, but with the housing recovery now on the ropes those same economists are perplexed as to why. Yet, "hope" re...

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Housing: Is It Really Just The Weather?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2014

Housing-New-OverUnderEst-022614 There is little argument that the economic data has been "weaker than expected" with the reason being quickly attributed to "the weather."  This has particularly been the case with regard to the recent housing data which has put a dent into the "housing recovery will drive future economic growt...

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Is Housing Set To Lift Off?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 18, 2014

Home-New-HouseholdDebt-021814 I have read several articles as of late suggesting that the housing recovery is likely to regain its footing in 2014 supporting further economic growth.  Gene Epstein penned the following for Barron's: "Snow paralyzed the Eastern U.S. last week, but it won't put a chill on what could be the hott...

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An Update On The Housing Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2014

Home-Inventory-011614 In July of last year, I asked the question of whether housing was really recovering or not?  There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last few years as it relates to the economy and I thought it was time to update the data to see how far we have progressed.&nb...

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If Housing Is Booming - Why Do We Need Another Fix
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 06, 2013

Housing-Ownership-Renters-072513 President Obama recently stopped in Phoenix to deliver his latest diatribe on how he is going to fix the economy.  Yes, that is correct, another round of "campaign speeches" that, as has been the hallmark of this Administration to date, have generally wound up mired in abyss of a broken co...

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"Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul. 26, 2013

GDP-Not-Your-Fathers-Economy-072513-3 There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, e...

Read more...
The Eurozone Could Be A Problem For Stocks
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 02, 2014

GDP-US-EuroZone-081414 A few weeks ago I asked a simple question: "Can The U.S. Economy Stand Alone?" "The following chart is food for thought. There are extremely high expectations that the U.S. economy will achieve “lift off” in terms of economic growth eventually achieving 3-4% annualized growth rates. The chart...

Read more...
Interview: Congressman Kevin Brady
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 29, 2014

Kevin-Brady-Pic I recently visited with Congressman Kevin Brady (R), Texas 8th District, about a variety of issues that face voters going into the mid-term elections in November: Can conservatives recapture the Senate? If conservatives can gain control of the House and Senate will it change the previous course ...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 6)
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian to the consensus, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio manager and strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and...

Read more...
4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2014

Rosenberg-LEI-082714 David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the year-over-year trend in the LEI turns negative while the diffusion index falls below 30%. At three-months away, the LEI is down 1% YoY and the diffusion index nears 25%.  B...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Interesting Stuff
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 22, 2014

SP500-CorrectionSizes-081414 I had to laugh this morning when I read Eddy Elfenbein's commentary on the recent market correction: "The vicious bear market that rocked Wall Street for a full two weeks has finally come to an end. Measuring from close to close, the S&P 500 plunged for a massive 3.94 loss between July 24 and...

Read more...
Alternative Measures Suggest Weaker Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 19, 2014

GDP-Annualzied-GrowthRate-082114 There is much hope pinned on continuing economic recovery in the United States despite a deterioration of the global economy virtually everywhere else. According to the May 2014 Blue Chip Economic Consensus Forecasts: "U.S. real GDP is expected to increase by 2.4 percent in 2014 as a whole, 0.5 o...

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5 Things To Ponder: Multifarious Cogitation
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2014

ABOOK-Aug-2014-Fischer-Buybacks Most of my weekend reading lists are generally focused on a common theme, however, that will not be the case this time. There were just too many interesting readings to share with you and felt that I would be remiss not to bring your attention to them. Therefore, this weekend’s “Things To Ponder...

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6 Money Habits Of Unhappy Couples
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Jul. 18, 2014

Broke-Couple We’ve all heard the horror stories of couples suffering in a toxic money mix. Married or unmarried – it doesn’t matter. Financial harmony is crucial to a couple’s long-term synergy with money. From my experience, the ones with cohesive financial strategies are the most successful. Over t...

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Supreme Court Ruling: Inherited IRA's And Bankruptcy
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Jul. 10, 2014

Choices Background Since the enactment of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act in 2005, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) have been protected under federal law if you declare bankruptcy. The exemption was originally capped at $1 million, but has since grown to $1,245,475 (as of A...

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Retirement Planning - What's Your Hurdle Rate
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Jun. 20, 2014

Choices After reading recent excellent StreetTalk Live blog posts by Lance Roberts on "5 Cognitive Biases that are Killing Your Returns" and by Richard Rosso on "Four Words to Better Retirement Planning", I wanted to want to continue that discussion. In over 18 years in the financial services industry, I co...

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Four Words to Better Retirement Planning
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Jun. 18, 2014

Brain-24bit What are the obstacles that cause you to veer off course when it comes to retirement planning? Increasing the odds of success shouldn’t be overwhelming. Effective solutions can hide in plain sight. Small changes in perspective or actions can lead to better results. Consider the following four ...

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4 Ways To Overcome Financial Inertia
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Jun. 09, 2014

Climbing-Stairs Five years after the financial crisis and those who cross my path tell me it feels like the recession still grips us. They are still stressed over personal finance, investing and debt management. I understand. The concerns are valid. The stock market is up close to 200% since March 2009; housing i...

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Should You File Early For Social Security
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Jun. 09, 2014

Choices Per the Nationwide Financial survey released last Wednesday (June 4th), 38% of retirees who claimed Social Security benefits before full retirement age now regret their decision and wish they had waited as it would have resulted in a larger monthly payment that many Baby Boomers need. This is even m...

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The Many Errors Of The "Active vs. Passive" Debate
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 20, 2014

VFINX-vs-SP500-052314 Since the mid-90's there has been an ongoing debate waged between "passive indexing" and "active management" of portfolios.  The primary point of contention is "why pay a manager a fee to actively manage a portfolio when [x%] of managers fail to beat an index fund over [x period]." On the surfa...

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S&P 500: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Written by Chris Kimble | Apr. 02, 2013

Kimble-040213 ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM April 2, 2013 By: Chris Kimble Investors around the world are sitting on the edges of their seats, wondering if the S&P 500 will breakout or is making a giant 13-year triple top. Where should one look for answers or clues to the next big move in the broad m...

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Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2012

80-20-portfolio-targeting-082012 Do you feel lucky?  That was the topic of this past weekend's missive as we wrote extensively on the current market environment and the technical setup behind the recent market "buy" signal.  That line from Dirty Harry (Click Here for Video) spawned many email questions, and comments, over the ...

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The Fear Gauge Goes Quiet
Written by Spencer Jakab | Aug. 17, 2012

vix-vs-sp500-081712 WALL STREET JOURNAL August 17, 2012 By: Spencer Jakab (Chart by Streettalklive.com) Wall Street's famous "fear gauge" is scraping along the bottom once again. Should that, counter-intuitively, spook investors? Not necessarily, although there probably are more fundamental reasons to wonder if...

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Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-qe-market-081512-3 There is a consensus as of late that the Fed will launch another round of stimulative action in the form of a balance sheet expansion program (Quantitative Easing) by the next FOMC meeting in September.  Of course, this was also the consensus before the June and August meetings - yet each disappoin...

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Doug Kass: Market Top Is Near
Written by Doug Kass | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-tripletop-081512 THESTREET.COM / REAL MONEY August 14, 2012 By: Doug Kass NEW YORK (Real Money) -- What I learned in my investment career is market participants prefer the comfort of crowds rather than the company of the remnants. Investors and traders, as demonstrated in recent years, seemingly prefer to buy st...

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Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 08, 2012

sp500-marketupdate-080812 The markets have been rising recently on "hopes" that Central Bankers around the world will unite into one big giant "funding-palooza" and resolve the Eurozone crisis conclusively.  While the reality is that world wide bailouts will not resolve what ails the Eurozone - the markets are salivating at...

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Are Investors Really That Bearish?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 07, 2012

ici-equity-bond-flows-080712 I have read several articles as of late dicussing the excessive "bearishness" of investors, which from a contrarian point of view, is "bullish" for the stock market.  The general position is that investors are so bearish that they are now just hiding in bonds and stuffing cash into their mattresses...

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