4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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Interview: Is The Economy Really Doing Better

In a recent interview with my friend Tom Zizka at Fox26 News, we discussed the recent election and the view by voters that the...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014
will-rising-fed-rates-cause-a-problemAs of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish...
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 15, 2014
the-illusion-of-permanent-liquidityAFP (Agence France-Presse) recently printed an interesting piece about the current illusion of permanent liquidity.  To wit: "Loose monetary policies have created an 'illusion of permanent liquidity' that is spurring investors to make...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Tryptophan Induced Coma
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 26, 2014

GDI-112614 Since this is Thanksgiving, I want to offer my thanks to you for your readership over the past year. Your comments, suggestions, and debates have been a great source of education and affirmation for me. Thank you. As we prepare for the annual food fest, and post-Thanksgiving tryptophan-induced food...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 19)
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 24, 2014

CFNAI-Supply-Demand-112514 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

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You Thought QE Was Over?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 24, 2014

SP500-Chart2-103114 A couple of weeks ago in the weekly newsletter (subscribe for free E-Delivery) I discussed the series of events behind the decline of the market in October and the subsequent surge. "The chart below shows the series of events that has propelled the markets higher in recent days as a massive short...

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5 Things To Ponder: Rising Risk
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 20, 2014

Markit-Industrial-Production-112014 There are things going on with the financial markets currently that seem just a bit "out of balance." For example, asset prices are rising against a backdrop of global weakness, deflationary pressures and rising valuations. More importantly, there is a rising divergence between sentiment and hard da...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 18)
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 20, 2014

SP500-Stock-Bond-Ratio-112014 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
Interview: Is The Economy Really Doing Better
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2014

Fox-26-IsEconomyBetter-110514 In a recent interview with my friend Tom Zizka at Fox26 News, we discussed the recent election and the view by voters that the economy may not be as strong as statistical headlines suggest. During the interview Tom references a post I wrote discussing these divergences between the data and voter sen...

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The Eurozone's QE Problem
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 19, 2014

Japan-Economy-RealGDP-111714-2 Over the last couple of weeks, as the Federal Reserve ended their latest round of quantitative easing, there have been many calls that the pickup of the "QE Baton" by the BOJ and ECB. The problem is that the impact of liquidity interventions in Japan and the Eurozone do not carry the same "punch" as...

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Do Lower Gas Prices Really Boost Consumption?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 18, 2014

Employment-Texas-DallasFed-111814 The recent plunge in oil prices has brought both optimism and pessimism to the economic landscape. Anyone who lives in Houston, as I do, knows that the price of oil is an important driver of the economic landscape. The plunge in oil prices in the 1980's is a solemn memory for many Houstonians, parti...

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Pressures On US Economy Just Increased
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 17, 2014

Japan-Economy-RealGDP-111714-2 I have been suggesting that the U.S. economy would likely be unable to meet current estimates of sustained and robust economic growth of 3% or more due to the global slowdown. Despite ongoing Central Bank interventions, the deflationary pressures in the Eurozone and Japan are likely to flow back to ...

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5 Things To Ponder: Market Stew
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov. 13, 2014

Polar-Vortex-2.0 The markets have been pushing new all-time highs this past week as earnings season begins to wind down. Starting next week, much of the focus will shift back to the economy and holiday retail sales. Expectations are for a robust season but the early arrival of winter could have a more negative effec...

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