4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Why Market Bulls Should Hope Interest Rates Don't Rise

Yesterday, I participated in a panel discussion on CNBC about the markets and the economy.  It was during the course of that...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014
will-rising-fed-rates-cause-a-problemAs of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish...
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 15, 2014
the-illusion-of-permanent-liquidityAFP (Agence France-Presse) recently printed an interesting piece about the current illusion of permanent liquidity.  To wit: "Loose monetary policies have created an 'illusion of permanent liquidity' that is spurring investors to make...
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Browse Blog Categories

Chart Of The Day: Junk Bonds As An Early Warning
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 22, 2014

HighYield-SP500-102214 Today's Chart Of The Day is a look at the level, and movement, of "junk bond yields" as they relate to the broader stock market. While the media prefers to use a more "marketing friendly" term of "high-yield bonds," the reality is that these are debt securities issued by firms with the substantial l...

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Be Careful, Correction May Not Be Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 21, 2014

SP500-Vix-102114 Beginning in late 2012, as the Federal Reserve announced their latest innovation of "quantitative easing," the markets launched into an uninterrupted advance that lulled investors into a complacent slumber. Well, that is until a couple of weeks ago when volatility returned with a vengeance and remin...

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Houston, We Have A "Fracking" Problem
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 20, 2014

Oil-Consumption-Supply-101614 Last week, I touched on the issue of oil prices and demand stating: "First, the development of the “shale oil” production over the last five years has caused oil inventories to surge at a time when demand for petroleum products is on the decline as shown below." "The obvious ramificati...

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Modern Portfolio Theory 2.0
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 20, 2014

Abstract-Spotting-Money I was recently asked to give a presentation at the 28th annual personal financial planning conference discussing the changing dynamics of investing in a liquidity driven, computerized and global interconnected marketplace. However, here are the major points from the presenation: Due to computeri...

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5 Things To Ponder: "Buy" or "Run"
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 17, 2014

punched This past week investors to a blow from a sharp selloff in the financial markets. I have spilled quite a bit of ink in recent months discussing the probabilities of such as corrective event as the Federal Reserve’s current liquidity operation came to a conclusion this month. Now that the correcti...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 13)
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 16, 2014

Oil-InterestRates-Inflation-101614 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

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Past Predictions Come To Fruition, What Next?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 15, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-VS-SP500-032614 It helps if you are Jeff Gundlach, founder of Doubleline Capital, because when you say something like “interest rates will fall” in November, 2013; Forbes writes about it. Or, just this week, when he says, “we have seen the stock market top;” CNBC and Business Insider report it.  W...

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Climate Change
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 14, 2014

SP500-VIX-101414 Vitaliy Katsenelson recently published an article discussing his views on the markets and the global economy. He starts the article by saying: “Before I go further, if you believe the global economy is doing great and stocks are cheap, stop reading now; this column is not for you. I promise to ...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 13, 2014

Greg-Morris I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates to portfolio management and long term investment success. This book is a must read and an important resource for investors of all types. Gregory Morris has a long history...

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Inconceivable
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 13, 2014

STA-Economic-Output-Index-101314 Just recently one of the greatest fairytale movies ever made, “The Princess Bride” had its 27th anniversary of its release. If you have never seen the movie, you are missing one of the greatest classic adventure tales ever made and something that you will enjoy watching with your children. ...

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