4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Why Market Bulls Should Hope Interest Rates Don't Rise

Yesterday, I participated in a panel discussion on CNBC about the markets and the economy.  It was during the course of that...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014
will-rising-fed-rates-cause-a-problemAs of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish...
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 15, 2014
the-illusion-of-permanent-liquidityAFP (Agence France-Presse) recently printed an interesting piece about the current illusion of permanent liquidity.  To wit: "Loose monetary policies have created an 'illusion of permanent liquidity' that is spurring investors to make...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: "Spooky" Things
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 31, 2014

happy halloween by lordhannu-d4ekup5 I love this time of year, in particular it is the festivities surrounding one of the biggest commercial shopping days of the year - Halloween. According to Wikipedia: "Halloween, or Hallowe'en, is a contraction of "All Hallows' Evening",also known as Allhalloween, All Hallows' Eve, or All Sain...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 15)
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 30, 2014

QE-GDP-SP500-103014-2 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

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Is It Possible To Avoid The 10-Worst Days?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 29, 2014

Math-Of-Loss-102814-2 After yesterday's missive on "The Math Of Loss" I received quite a few emails and twitter comments questioning how a portfolio could be managed to avoid the "10-worst days." I expected some pushback from the article as it cuts against the grain of much of the commonly espoused views in the media and...

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The Math Of Loss
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 28, 2014

ICI-FundFlows-Bond-Equity-102814 Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a classic mistake in investing. "Because of the way our brains work, most of us worried about the possibility that this correction was turning into an outright market crash. ...

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Why The Fed Will End QE On Wednesday
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 27, 2014

Deficit-FedBalanceSheet-102714 This week we will find out the answer to whether the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative easing program or not (click here for more discussion on this issue). Today is the last open market operation of the current program, and my bet is that it will be the last, for now. Here are my th...

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5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 23, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-SP500-082614 Over the last few weeks, the markets have seen wild vacillations as stocks plunged and then surged on a massive short-squeeze in the most beaten up sectors of energy and small-mid capitalization companies. While "Ebola" fears filled mainstream headlines the other driver behind the sell-off, and then...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 14)
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 23, 2014

High-Inflation-Index-102314 "3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please...

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Chart Of The Day: Junk Bonds As An Early Warning
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 22, 2014

HighYield-SP500-102214 Today's Chart Of The Day is a look at the level, and movement, of "junk bond yields" as they relate to the broader stock market. While the media prefers to use a more "marketing friendly" term of "high-yield bonds," the reality is that these are debt securities issued by firms with the substantial l...

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Be Careful, Correction May Not Be Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 21, 2014

SP500-Vix-102114 Beginning in late 2012, as the Federal Reserve announced their latest innovation of "quantitative easing," the markets launched into an uninterrupted advance that lulled investors into a complacent slumber. Well, that is until a couple of weeks ago when volatility returned with a vengeance and remin...

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Houston, We Have A "Fracking" Problem
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 20, 2014

Oil-Consumption-Supply-101614 Last week, I touched on the issue of oil prices and demand stating: "First, the development of the “shale oil” production over the last five years has caused oil inventories to surge at a time when demand for petroleum products is on the decline as shown below." "The obvious ramificati...

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