4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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7 Deadly Credit Sins

I recently wrote an article entitled the "7 Deadly Investing Sins" which discussed the seven biblical sins of greed, sloth,...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Why Market Bulls Should Hope Interest Rates Don't Rise

Yesterday, I participated in a panel discussion on CNBC about the markets and the economy.  It was during the course of that...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 16, 2014
could-stocks-melt-upOver the weekend, E.S. Browning wrote a very interesting article for The Wall Street Journal entitled: "Blast From The Past: Couple Stocks Melt Up?" "Money managers and analysts are beginning to talk about an idea that dates from the roaring...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun. 17, 2014
5-cognitive-biases-that-are-killing-your-returnsGeorge Dvorsky once wrote that: "The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence. But that doesn't mean our brains don't have major limitations. The lowly...
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Browse Blog Categories

CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 29, 2014

CNBC-092914-2 It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently and the rising potential risk. This is something that I addressed in a good bit of detail in last weekend's newsletter.  (Subscribe for FREE weekly delivery of macr...

Read more...
Market Timing Is For The Birds
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 29, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 John Waggoner, USA Today, recently wrote an article entitled “Investing, Market Timing Is For The Birds” wherein he discusses the issues of market timing that has always plagued investor’s returns. However, while John does touch on long term versus short term investing, he did not go far enoug...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Market Concerns
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 26, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-VS-SP500-032614 Thankfully it is Friday which means a rather volatile, and rough, week for stocks is coming to a close. This past week I did a rather complete technical review of the major markets globally noting a rising level of deterioration in prices. As I noted in that missive: “However, since the beginning...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 10)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 25, 2014

Nasdaq-Biotech-NoBubble-092514 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
The Market In Pictures - Deterioration
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 24, 2014

Major-Market-Performance-092414 Roughly ever six months or so I do a chart analysis of the markets primarily focused around macro indicators of valuation, complacency, and leverage. However, recent market action needs to be addressed with respect to the deterioration of market internals. Despite the ongoing debate being waged on ...

Read more...
Will Rising Fed Rates Cause A Problem?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014

Interest-Rate-Fed-10Yr-092314 As of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish thesis that the Fed can raise the overnight lending rate, but...

Read more...
Analyzing Earnings As Of Q2 2014
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 22, 2014

Earnings-Qtrly-Chgs-092214 With the second quarter earnings report for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 2nd quarter of 2014. Second quarters results were considerably better than the Q1 as activity rebounded following the exceptionally cold winter season.&...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 19, 2014

Yellen-GrowthForecasts-091814 It has been quite an eventful week between Scotland's battle over independence, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announcement and the markets making new all time highs. For Scotland, the decision came down to the benefits of maintaining their unity with the United Kingdom. While William Wallace may not h...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 9)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 18, 2014

FOMC-Projections-GDP-091814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
7 Deadly Credit Sins
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 17, 2014

Fox26-News-091714 I recently wrote an article entitled the "7 Deadly Investing Sins" which discussed the seven biblical sins of greed, sloth, gluttony, envy, wrath, pride and lust.  These basic emotions have always led us to making bad investment decisions with our money when investing.  However, just recen...

Read more...
CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 29, 2014

CNBC-092914-2 It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently and the rising potential risk. This is something that I addressed in a good bit of detail in last weekend's newsletter.  (Subscribe for FREE weekly delivery of macr...

Read more...
Market Timing Is For The Birds
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 29, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 John Waggoner, USA Today, recently wrote an article entitled “Investing, Market Timing Is For The Birds” wherein he discusses the issues of market timing that has always plagued investor’s returns. However, while John does touch on long term versus short term investing, he did not go far enoug...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: Market Concerns
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 26, 2014

Fed-Balance-Sheet-VS-SP500-032614 Thankfully it is Friday which means a rather volatile, and rough, week for stocks is coming to a close. This past week I did a rather complete technical review of the major markets globally noting a rising level of deterioration in prices. As I noted in that missive: “However, since the beginning...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 10)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 25, 2014

Nasdaq-Biotech-NoBubble-092514 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
The Market In Pictures - Deterioration
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 24, 2014

Major-Market-Performance-092414 Roughly ever six months or so I do a chart analysis of the markets primarily focused around macro indicators of valuation, complacency, and leverage. However, recent market action needs to be addressed with respect to the deterioration of market internals. Despite the ongoing debate being waged on ...

Read more...
Will Rising Fed Rates Cause A Problem?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014

Interest-Rate-Fed-10Yr-092314 As of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish thesis that the Fed can raise the overnight lending rate, but...

Read more...
Analyzing Earnings As Of Q2 2014
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 22, 2014

Earnings-Qtrly-Chgs-092214 With the second quarter earnings report for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 2nd quarter of 2014. Second quarters results were considerably better than the Q1 as activity rebounded following the exceptionally cold winter season.&...

Read more...
Problems In The Housing Market? Oracle Awakes To Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 05, 2014

Housing-VacantHomes-050514 For the last two years, I have regularly been updating our analysis of the housing market and why the much prophesied recovery was unlikely. (See here, here and here for examples.)  Yet, despite the hard data to the contrary, the mainstream analysis continued to beat the "housing is recovering"...

Read more...
Economists Stunned By Housing Fade, Told You So
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2014

Household-formation Since 2012, almost every economist has predicted that the housing recovery would continue into each coming year and would be a key driver of economic growth. That was again the plan for 2014, but with the housing recovery now on the ropes those same economists are perplexed as to why. Yet, "hope" re...

Read more...
Housing: Is It Really Just The Weather?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2014

Housing-New-OverUnderEst-022614 There is little argument that the economic data has been "weaker than expected" with the reason being quickly attributed to "the weather."  This has particularly been the case with regard to the recent housing data which has put a dent into the "housing recovery will drive future economic growt...

Read more...
Is Housing Set To Lift Off?
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 18, 2014

Home-New-HouseholdDebt-021814 I have read several articles as of late suggesting that the housing recovery is likely to regain its footing in 2014 supporting further economic growth.  Gene Epstein penned the following for Barron's: "Snow paralyzed the Eastern U.S. last week, but it won't put a chill on what could be the hott...

Read more...
An Update On The Housing Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 16, 2014

Home-Inventory-011614 In July of last year, I asked the question of whether housing was really recovering or not?  There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last few years as it relates to the economy and I thought it was time to update the data to see how far we have progressed.&nb...

Read more...
If Housing Is Booming - Why Do We Need Another Fix
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 06, 2013

Housing-Ownership-Renters-072513 President Obama recently stopped in Phoenix to deliver his latest diatribe on how he is going to fix the economy.  Yes, that is correct, another round of "campaign speeches" that, as has been the hallmark of this Administration to date, have generally wound up mired in abyss of a broken co...

Read more...
"Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?
Written by Lance Roberts | Jul. 26, 2013

GDP-Not-Your-Fathers-Economy-072513-3 There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, e...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 10)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 25, 2014

Nasdaq-Biotech-NoBubble-092514 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
Will Rising Fed Rates Cause A Problem?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 23, 2014

Interest-Rate-Fed-10Yr-092314 As of late I have seen numerous articles and comments made that just because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it will only affect the short end of the yield curve, but not the long end. This premise is used to support the bullish thesis that the Fed can raise the overnight lending rate, but...

Read more...
5 Things To Ponder: The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 19, 2014

Yellen-GrowthForecasts-091814 It has been quite an eventful week between Scotland's battle over independence, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announcement and the markets making new all time highs. For Scotland, the decision came down to the benefits of maintaining their unity with the United Kingdom. While William Wallace may not h...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 9)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 18, 2014

FOMC-Projections-GDP-091814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
Not All That It Seems
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 16, 2014

Estimated-Earnings-Growth-091514 It’s a slow day in the neighborhood as the world awaits the Janet Yellen’s post-FOMC meeting press conference. It is almost like the old “Batman” series with Adam West when they would get to the end of the show and leave you with a “cliffhanger:” “It’s a questionably unquestionable ...

Read more...
3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 8)
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 11, 2014

911-Remember ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Ple...

Read more...
For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 10, 2014

Fed-Survey-2013-NetWorth-091014 Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from household net worth to incomes. The 2013 survey confirms statements I have made previously regarding the Fed's monetary interventions leaving the majority of Americans behind: ...

Read more...
Market Timing Is For The Birds
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 29, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-082814 John Waggoner, USA Today, recently wrote an article entitled “Investing, Market Timing Is For The Birds” wherein he discusses the issues of market timing that has always plagued investor’s returns. However, while John does touch on long term versus short term investing, he did not go far enoug...

Read more...
7 Deadly Credit Sins
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 17, 2014

Fox26-News-091714 I recently wrote an article entitled the "7 Deadly Investing Sins" which discussed the seven biblical sins of greed, sloth, gluttony, envy, wrath, pride and lust.  These basic emotions have always led us to making bad investment decisions with our money when investing.  However, just recen...

Read more...
The 7 Deadly Sins Of Investing
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 09, 2014

Seven-deadly-sins I have often written about the emotional and psychological factors that inhibit long-term investment performance (most recently here). Despite repeated studies that suggest investors should just buy "passive index" funds and "hold on" until eternity, the reality is that it simply does not work that ...

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8 Things People Won't Tell Their Advisors
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Sep. 08, 2014

Things-They-Wont-Say In this age of social media, where privacy seems to be a thing of the past, there are several financial topics which remain undiscussed among public circles. I know. I listen and document them as a financial adviser. Here are the top eight things about their finances households don't often share. ...

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6 Money Habits Of Unhappy Couples
Written by Richard Rosso, CFP | Jul. 18, 2014

Broke-Couple We’ve all heard the horror stories of couples suffering in a toxic money mix. Married or unmarried – it doesn’t matter. Financial harmony is crucial to a couple’s long-term synergy with money. From my experience, the ones with cohesive financial strategies are the most successful. Over t...

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Supreme Court Ruling: Inherited IRA's And Bankruptcy
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Jul. 10, 2014

Choices Background Since the enactment of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act in 2005, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) have been protected under federal law if you declare bankruptcy. The exemption was originally capped at $1 million, but has since grown to $1,245,475 (as of A...

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Retirement Planning - What's Your Hurdle Rate
Written by Scott Bishop, CPA, CFP | Jun. 20, 2014

Choices After reading recent excellent StreetTalk Live blog posts by Lance Roberts on "5 Cognitive Biases that are Killing Your Returns" and by Richard Rosso on "Four Words to Better Retirement Planning", I wanted to want to continue that discussion. In over 18 years in the financial services industry, I co...

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S&P 500: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Written by Chris Kimble | Apr. 02, 2013

Kimble-040213 ADVISOR PERSPECTIVES / DSHORT.COM April 2, 2013 By: Chris Kimble Investors around the world are sitting on the edges of their seats, wondering if the S&P 500 will breakout or is making a giant 13-year triple top. Where should one look for answers or clues to the next big move in the broad m...

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Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2012

80-20-portfolio-targeting-082012 Do you feel lucky?  That was the topic of this past weekend's missive as we wrote extensively on the current market environment and the technical setup behind the recent market "buy" signal.  That line from Dirty Harry (Click Here for Video) spawned many email questions, and comments, over the ...

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The Fear Gauge Goes Quiet
Written by Spencer Jakab | Aug. 17, 2012

vix-vs-sp500-081712 WALL STREET JOURNAL August 17, 2012 By: Spencer Jakab (Chart by Streettalklive.com) Wall Street's famous "fear gauge" is scraping along the bottom once again. Should that, counter-intuitively, spook investors? Not necessarily, although there probably are more fundamental reasons to wonder if...

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Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-qe-market-081512-3 There is a consensus as of late that the Fed will launch another round of stimulative action in the form of a balance sheet expansion program (Quantitative Easing) by the next FOMC meeting in September.  Of course, this was also the consensus before the June and August meetings - yet each disappoin...

Read more...
Doug Kass: Market Top Is Near
Written by Doug Kass | Aug. 15, 2012

sp500-tripletop-081512 THESTREET.COM / REAL MONEY August 14, 2012 By: Doug Kass NEW YORK (Real Money) -- What I learned in my investment career is market participants prefer the comfort of crowds rather than the company of the remnants. Investors and traders, as demonstrated in recent years, seemingly prefer to buy st...

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Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 08, 2012

sp500-marketupdate-080812 The markets have been rising recently on "hopes" that Central Bankers around the world will unite into one big giant "funding-palooza" and resolve the Eurozone crisis conclusively.  While the reality is that world wide bailouts will not resolve what ails the Eurozone - the markets are salivating at...

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Are Investors Really That Bearish?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 07, 2012

ici-equity-bond-flows-080712 I have read several articles as of late dicussing the excessive "bearishness" of investors, which from a contrarian point of view, is "bullish" for the stock market.  The general position is that investors are so bearish that they are now just hiding in bonds and stuffing cash into their mattresses...

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