Think Like A Bear, Invest Like A Bull

I am traveling today but had some interesting questions posed to me during my recent presentation. However, one really drove to...

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Some Thoughts On Long Term Investing

The most valuable commodity that we all have is "time." While the markets may have recently hit "all-time" highs, for the...

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Fox 26: Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year

I spent a few minutes with my friends at Fox 26 Houston yesterday discussing the FOMC's recent two day meeting and why the Fed...

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The Math Of Loss

Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a...

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10 Investment Quotes To Live By

As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue...

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Rising Interest Rates & Long Term Stock Returns

With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous...

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The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?

There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs

This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 30, 2014
falling-energy-costs-and-economic-impacts "If you repeat a falsehood long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact." In the financial markets and economics it is a common occurrence that the media and commentators will latch on to a statement that supports a cognitive bias...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2015
5-charts-for-fully-invested-bearsYesterday, I discussed some interesting viewpoints relating to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. Part of that discussion was focused on a recent interview with famed Morgan Stanley strategist Gerard Minack who made a statement...
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Browse Blog Categories

Wien: His Personal Economy Is Different Than Yours
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 01, 2015

Wages-Profits-GDP-040115 Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, LP and senior advisor to the firm, recently penned an interesting article entitled "Exploring 4 Myths." Within the first part of the article Byron discusses the viewpoint of the decline of American exceptionalism: "There are some good re...

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Market Momentum Slows As Stocks Struggle
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 31, 2015

SP500-PMO-12MMA-033115 A few weeks ago I discussed the importance of price momentum as an important component of portfolio management particularly in the late stages of a market advance when "investor exuberance" begins to overtake value based measures. To wit: "The effect of momentum is arguably one of the most pervas...

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Measures Warn Of Rising Recession Risks
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 30, 2015

Profit-Margins-GDP-StdDev-032315 In this past weekend's newsletter (click to read and subscribe for free E-delivery), I briefly touched on some corporate profit analysis that I wanted to expand on more today. Each quarter the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an update on corporate profits after tax and including inventory adju...

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5 Things To Ponder: Random Musings
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 26, 2015

5-Things-Extra This weekend's reading list is a bit of a hodge-podge of reads on a variety of different topics. However, before we get into it I wanted to address an interesting statement by the Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart who Thursday: "Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockha...

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3 Things: No Money, Wall Street's Big Scam, Bottom 80%
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 25, 2015

Fed-Survey-2013-NetWorth-091014 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Remain Invested But Pay Attention To The Warning Signs
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 24, 2015

EOCI-SP500-032415 Over the last couple of days, I have been focusing on the longer-term risks of currently overvalued markets. The primary problem with valuation measures and fundamentals, is that markets can remain detached from reality for much longer than logic would dictate. As Sam Ro pointed out, valuations are ...

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Corporate Profit Margins And Investor Consequences
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 24, 2015

Profits-Percent-GDP-1929-OFR-032315 Yesterday, I discussed the valuation report issued by the Office of Financial Research which contained several important statements about the risk to investors in overvalued markets. To wit: "Markets can change rapidly and unpredictably. When these changes occur, they are sharpest and most damagi...

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OFR: Assessing The Risk Of Overvalued Markets
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 23, 2015

valuation-recessions-market-declines-table In this past weekend's missive (subscribe for free e-delivery), I discussed that with asset valuations high by historical standards the markets are currently being driven by shear momentum due to the "fear of missing out." This "price push," amid declining earnings strength and slower economic under...

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Fox 26: Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 20, 2015

Fox-26-032015 I spent a few minutes with my friends at Fox 26 Houston yesterday discussing the FOMC's recent two day meeting and why the Fed will not raise interest rates this year.  As I wrote yesterday, the track record of the Fed's economic forecasting has been abysmal as shown in the attendant chart of ...

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5 Things To Ponder: What Hath The Fed Wrought
Written by Lance Roberts | Mar. 20, 2015

5-Things-Extra I was having lunch with a very dear friend of mine yesterday, who is also a very successful financial planner and advisor, who stunned me with an obvious question: "Has the dumb money become the smart money?"  What we were discussing is that, collectively, the majority of the conversations tha...

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