4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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Interview: Is The Economy Really Doing Better

In a recent interview with my friend Tom Zizka at Fox26 News, we discussed the recent election and the view by voters that the...

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10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

I live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 10, 2014
10-legendary-investment-rules-from-legendary-investorsI live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and related processes. As such, the amount of wealth created in energy-related investments has been enormous and, not...
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 28, 2014
the-math-of-lossBusiness Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a classic mistake in investing. "Because of the way our brains work, most of us worried about the possibility that...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Weekend Catch Up
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 27, 2015

5-Things-Extra With the "Great Greek Tragedy" now behind the markets, for the time, all eyes have turned towards the Nasdaq's triumphant march back to 5000.  (The graphics department at CNBC have been working overtime on banners and bugs for when it happens....watch for them.) However, as I penned earlier t...

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3 Things - High Yield Warning, Yellen's Employment & Economy
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 26, 2015

Yield-Spread-BB-AAA-022515 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Economic Composite Index Suggests Restocking Cycle Is Over
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 24, 2015

EOCI-2009-Present-Events-022415 Since the end of the financial crisis, the economy has ebbed and flowed between expansions and contractions. The contraction in economic activity during the financial crisis was followed by a surge in economic activity as inventories were restocked, and pent-up demand was filled. The same occurred ...

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Chart Of The Day: The Run For Nasdaq All-Time Highs
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 24, 2015

Nasdaq-Comp-Real-Nominal-022415 With the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averages already hitting real, inflation-adjusted, all-time highs; market participants have now turned their attention towards the Nasdaq Composite. Today's "Chart of the Day" takes a look at just how close, and far, the Nasdaq is from joining the "all-t...

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Markets Vs Economy - The Great Disconnect
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 23, 2015

SP500-RecordHighs-022315 Last week, the markets hit new "all-time" highs as Greece caved into the demands of the Eurozone, at least for now, in order to secure funding for another four months. The relief that the latest Eurozone crisis has been resolved sent money flowing into equity markets as investors remain "afraid to m...

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5 Things To Ponder: Salmagundi Introspections
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 19, 2015

5-Things-Extra This past week has been a virtual tennis match watching the evolution of the Greek bailout negotiations. No Deal, Deal, No Deal, Deal. However, despite the fallout that would likely come from a Greek "exit," the markets have largely managed to ignore the risk and hit an all-time high this week. Mar...

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3 Things - Forward Estimates, Valuations vs. Returns, Told You So
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 19, 2015

Forward-Earnings-Est-021915 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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No Economy Is An Island
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 18, 2015

Japan-Eurozone-US-RealGDP-111714 I have written many times in the past that the U.S. economy is not immune from the global deflationary impacts.  To wit: "While none of this analysis suggests that a domestic recession is imminent, it does suggest that the hopes that the U.S. can 'decouple' from the rest of the world's defla...

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The Conundrum Of Retail Sales
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 17, 2015

Employment-16-54-020915 Over the last few days, there have been numerous articles puzzling over the surprise drop in latest retail sales report. "At first blush, the January U.S. retail sales data were disappointing. So, the early evidence confirms the Visa survey that the savings from the plunge in energy costs is bein...

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3 Things - Uncomfortable Facts, 25-54 Employment, Houston RE
Written by Lance Roberts | Feb. 11, 2015

SP500-ProfitMargins-Valuations-021515 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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