Think Like A Bear, Invest Like A Bull

I am traveling today but had some interesting questions posed to me during my recent presentation. However, one really drove to...

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Some Thoughts On Long Term Investing

The most valuable commodity that we all have is "time." While the markets may have recently hit "all-time" highs, for the...

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OMG: Putting Jump In Interest Rates Into Perspective

During my daily radio broadcast yesterday, I received a rather "panicked" call regarding the "dramatic plunge" in his bond funds...

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Your Retirement Plan Is Probably Wrong

During strongly trending bull markets, investors tend to forget that devastating events happen. Major events such as the "Crash...

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Fox 26: Market Crash And The China Syndrome

I spent a few minutes with my friends Melissa Wilson and Tom Zizka at Fox 26 Houston earlier this week discussing the issues...

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Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors

Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how...

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The Math Of Loss

Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a...

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10 Investment Quotes To Live By

As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue...

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The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?

There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs

This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 8, 2015
dalbar-why-investors-suck-and-tips-for-advisorsDalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how poorly investors perform relative to market benchmarks over time and the reasons for that underperformance. It is...
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 27, 2015
understanding-the-next-10-years-of-low-returnsResearch Affiliates, in their May newsletter, discussed the importance of "secular stagnation" and a coming decade of low returns. How low you ask? How about 1% kind of low? "But Lance, the markets has returned 10% on average over the last...

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Technically Speaking: The Mark Of A Bear
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep. 01, 2015

bear-paw "Technically Speaking" is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. This commentary also updates the more detailed analysis, and allocation model provided weekly in the X-Factor Report (su...

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Fischer Keeps Rate Hike Door Open, But Shouldn't
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 31, 2015

Inflation-GDP-Fed-083115 Over the weekend, economic luminaries (I use that term loosely) swarmed into Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed's Economic "Let's All Agree To Agree" Symposium. The message emanating from the meeting was exactly what was to be expected. Central Bankers from around the globe all con...

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Weekend Reading: Just A Correction, Or Something Else
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 28, 2015

AAA-Weekend-Reading-List Earlier this week I posted two pieces of analysis with respect to the recent dive in the markets. The first discussed the possibility that this is just a correction within an ongoing bull market. The second delved into the possibility that a new cyclical bear market has begun. Only time will tell wh...

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3 Things: Bottom, Fed, Earnings
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2015

Murphy-Correction-082715 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Fox 26: Market Crash And The China Syndrome
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 27, 2015

Fox-26-082515 I spent a few minutes with my friends Melissa Wilson and Tom Zizka at Fox 26 Houston earlier this week discussing the issues surrounding the crash in the Dow on Monday and what investors should be doing now. As I wrote earlier this week: "Of course, what much of the mainstream analysis dismissed...

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Why This Time Could Be Different
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 25, 2015

PE-Ratio-5yr-CAPE-082515 In yesterday's post, I discussed the current correction within the context of previous "bull market" corrections. Specifically, the corrections in 1987, 1998, 2010 and 2011. However, today, I want to look at the current correction in the context of previous starts to "bear markets" and subsequent r...

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Technically Speaking: Is The Correction Over?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 25, 2015

PE-Ratio-5yr-CAPE-082515 "Technically Speaking" is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. This commentary also updates the more detailed analysis, and allocation model provided weekly in the X-Factor Report (su...

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Previous Warnings Come To Fruition
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 24, 2015

SP500-PMO-12MMA-082415 The market opened this morning with one of the most severe declines since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. However, if you have been reading my missives for any length of time, it should not come as any real surprise. In March of this year, I began discussing the various warning signals b...

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Weekend Reading: Is This The Big One?
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 21, 2015

AAA-Weekend-Reading-List Some month's back I posted an article entitled "No One Rings A Bell At The Top" wherein I stated: "The current levels of investor complacency are more usually associated with late-stage bull markets rather than the beginning of new ones. Of course, if you think about it, this only makes sense if ...

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3 Things: Fed Stumbles, Buybacks, Stock Decline
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug. 20, 2015

Debt-Financed-Buybacks-2 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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