4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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Interview: Is The Economy Really Doing Better

In a recent interview with my friend Tom Zizka at Fox26 News, we discussed the recent election and the view by voters that the...

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10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

I live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 10, 2014
10-legendary-investment-rules-from-legendary-investorsI live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and related processes. As such, the amount of wealth created in energy-related investments has been enormous and, not...
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 28, 2014
the-math-of-lossBusiness Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a classic mistake in investing. "Because of the way our brains work, most of us worried about the possibility that...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Variegated Contemplations
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 18, 2014

Faber-Drawdown-121814 "Twas the week before Christmas, when all through markets Not a trader was stirring, because they already left for the Hamptons. Which left  the "inmates running the asylum" with very little care As everyone hoped a 'Santa Claus Rally' would soon be there." Yes, it is that magical week ...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 22)
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 18, 2014

FOMC-Projections-GDP-121814 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

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Surprise...Everyone Was Wrong About The End Of QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 17, 2014

Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2 Since the beginning of this year, Wall Street economists and analysts have been consistently prognosticating that following the Federal Reserve's latest bond buying campaign, economic growth would gather steam and interest rates would begin to rise. This has consistently been the wrong call as I dis...

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Measuring The Potential Of The Current Correction
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 16, 2014

VIX-SP500-121514 After months of consistent predictions by the mainstream media that markets would only march higher, airtime is  now dominated with one simple question: "How big will this correction be?" That is the question that I want to explore in more detail strictly from a technical viewpoint. Since the...

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Starlings And What They Can Teach Us About "Herd Mentality"
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 15, 2014

Investor-Psychology-Cycle-062414 In this past weekend's newsletter (subscribe for free e-delivery) I discussed several macro viewpoints including: The current risks in the market given the recent technical deterioration The potential for a "market melt up in 2015, " and; The warning message being sent by the collapse in energy...

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5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 12, 2014

Oil-tradesetup-120914 This past week I have been inundated with questions regarding the dive in crude oil prices and the energy sector in general. Is this a fantastic buying opportunity, or is the bigger of something bigger? The answer depends on your time frame. For a speculative trader looking for a short-term opportu...

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3 Things Worth Thinking About (Vol. 21)
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 11, 2014

Decennial-cycle-011414-2 ["3 Things Worth Thinking About" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Pleas...

Read more...
10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 10, 2014

SP500-Energy-Perf-121014 I live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and related processes. As such, the amount of wealth created in energy-related investments has been enormous and, not surprisingly, a vast majority of individuals have overweigh...

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Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up?
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 09, 2014

Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2 Earlier this week Daniel Druger and Liz McCormick wrote an article for Bloomberg entitled: "One Hundred Years Of Bond History Means Bears Destined To Lose." The crux of the article is contained within the following paragraph: "With the longest-dated Treasuries now yielding less than half the 6.8 ...

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Analyzing Earnings As Of Q3 2014
Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 08, 2014

SP500-Oper-Rpt-Earnings-Chg-Qtr-120814 With the third quarter earnings reports for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 3rd quarter of 2014. Third quarters results were improved over Q2 as activity continued its rebound following the exceptionally cold winter season. ...

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