Think Like A Bear, Invest Like A Bull

I am traveling today but had some interesting questions posed to me during my recent presentation. However, one really drove to...

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Some Thoughts On Long Term Investing

The most valuable commodity that we all have is "time." While the markets may have recently hit "all-time" highs, for the...

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Fox 26: Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year

I spent a few minutes with my friends at Fox 26 Houston yesterday discussing the FOMC's recent two day meeting and why the Fed...

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Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors

Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how...

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The Math Of Loss

Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a...

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10 Investment Quotes To Live By

As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue...

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Rising Interest Rates & Long Term Stock Returns

With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous...

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The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?

There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs

This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 30, 2014
falling-energy-costs-and-economic-impacts "If you repeat a falsehood long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact." In the financial markets and economics it is a common occurrence that the media and commentators will latch on to a statement that supports a cognitive bias...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2015
5-charts-for-fully-invested-bearsYesterday, I discussed some interesting viewpoints relating to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. Part of that discussion was focused on a recent interview with famed Morgan Stanley strategist Gerard Minack who made a statement...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Everybody's Got One
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 22, 2015

5-Things-Extra Over the last couple of months, I have regularly updated the ongoing consolidation process in the S&P 500. As I noted earlier this week, that consolidation was completed confirming the current bull trend in the market. To wit:  "I stated previously that I expected the consolidation to re...

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3 Things: If You Don't Like It Change It
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 21, 2015

Economic-Recoveries-Historical-050515 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Housing Recovery - Real Or Memorex
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 20, 2015

Housing-HousingUnits-052015 There are probably quite a few of you reading this article who do not remember the old "Memorex" commercials when "cassette tapes" were THE recording technology of the day. It was yesterday's release of the housing starts data that reminded me of that slogan - "Is it live, or is it Memorex?" In ...

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Market Breaks Out To The Upside: Bulls Remain In Charge
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 18, 2015

SP500-Consolidation-042215-2 About a month ago, I discussed the market was approaching an important decision point. To wit: "Since the end of the 2012, coincident with the Federal Reserve's implementation of QE3, the market has been on an unrelenting bullish trajectory that has defied weakening underlying economic data and m...

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Recession Check: Updating The Indicators
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 18, 2015

PCE-Real-051815 In December of 2007, I wrote in my weekly newsletter that we were "...either in, or about to be in, the worst recession since the 'Great Depression.'" At that time, the warning rang hollow as GDP growth was positive, and the markets were still marching higher as the calendar turned to 2008. It was ...

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5 Things To Ponder: Reading While Waiting List
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 15, 2015

5-Things-Extra This past week has been much the same as the last couple of months - boring. It has been more interesting trying to count carpet fibers in my office than watching the markets. However, there has been some excitement in domestic bond yields that have SURGED over the last couple of weeks. Well, as I ...

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3 Things: The Labor Hoarding Effect
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 14, 2015

Jobless-Claims-051415 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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OMG: Putting Jump In Interest Rates Into Perspective
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 13, 2015

Interest-Rates-Surge-051315 During my daily radio broadcast yesterday, I received a rather "panicked" call regarding the "dramatic plunge" in his bond funds due to the recent jump in interest rates. Of course, he is not alone. Over the last few weeks the media has done its normal headline-grabbing spin by dragging out every bo...

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Riddle Me This: The Difference Between Headlines And Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 12, 2015

Global-Central-Bank-Rate-Cuts As I was preparing for my daily radio show broadcast yesterday, I began looking at a variety of polls over the last year as to what was the most important issue to voters for the 2016 election. One poll after another, regardless of whether it was from a conservative or liberal perspective, showed th...

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The Dangerfield Recovery Or A Skousen Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 11, 2015

Employment-16-54-051115 During my morning reading I ran across this article by my friend Cullen Roche, via Pragmatic Capitalist, entitled "The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect," or more commonly known as the "Dangerfield Recovery." "I hate to be the guy trying to highlight some of the good in a pretty weak&n...

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