4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely.

David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "Historically, when we are within six months of a recession, the...

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Obama Outperformed Reagan? Hardly.

"There are three types of lies; Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics." - Mark Twain Last week, Adam Hartung qualified for the "Mark...

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For 90% Of Americans: There Has Been No Recovery

Every three years the Federal Reserve releases a survey of consumer finances that is a stockpile of data on everything from...

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CNBC: Market Risks And Outlook

It was a bright and early Monday morning interview with CNBC Worldwide Exchange covering the outlook for the markets currently...

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Fox Business: Market Outlook Debate

I visited with Fox Business yesterday to discuss the outlook for the markets short term. While the bulls are still very much in...

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Interview: Gregory Morris, Investing With The Trend

I recently sat down with Gregory L. Morris, the author of "Investing With The Trend," on the importance of "price" as it relates...

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Interview: Is The Economy Really Doing Better

In a recent interview with my friend Tom Zizka at Fox26 News, we discussed the recent election and the view by voters that the...

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10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

I live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Yesterday, I discussed the real use of economic data when it comes to investing. However, it was extremely interesting to see the...

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Shiller's CAPE - Is It Really Just B.S.

In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90's...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 10, 2014
10-legendary-investment-rules-from-legendary-investorsI live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and related processes. As such, the amount of wealth created in energy-related investments has been enormous and, not...
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct. 28, 2014
the-math-of-lossBusiness Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a classic mistake in investing. "Because of the way our brains work, most of us worried about the possibility that...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: Ascending Contingencies
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 29, 2015

5-Things-Extra I spill a lot of digital ink pointing out potential investment risk to investors. As I have stated in the past, the reason I do this is because the media expends a great amount of effort to avoid such a discussion because it does not attract viewership/readership. (Also, since their advertisers are ...

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3 Things - Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 29, 2015

Retail-Sales-Oil-Prices-011515 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Signs That The Economy Is Weakening
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 28, 2015

Japan-Eurozone-US-RealGDP-111714 "Sign, sign, everywhere a signBlockin' out the scenery, breakin' my mindDo this, don't do that, can't you read the sign?" - Five Man Electrical Band For months now I have been discussing that despite the "hopes" that this time is different, there is little chance that the U.S. can remain an island ...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 27, 2015

Employment-NetChg-Ann-012715 This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for examples) Of course, much of the debate centers on which side of the political spectrum you fall on. Staunchly Democratic pundits continue to point at the Bureau of ...

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Investing Thoughts On Gold, Dollar And Other Stuff
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 26, 2015

Gold-012315 Note: This week's postings may be a bit erratic as I am preparing to travel to Vancouver to speak at the annual MoneyTalk Conference. I will be posting my slide presentation on the state of the economy and markets later this week so stay tuned. Postings and commentaries will return to their normal s...

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5 Things To Ponder: The ABC's Of The ECB's QE
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2015

5-Things-Extra Well the day has finally arrived that after two years of promises, jawboning and hope - the European Central Bank finally announced they will take the plunge into the Quantitative Easing (QE) pool. As I wrote yesterday: "Today, the ECB announced that they will engage in a "QE" type program buyin...

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3 Things - The Fed, Rig Counts And Employment, ECB
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 22, 2015

Inflation-Breakeven-GDP-012215 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 20, 2015

Fed-InterestRates-Crisis-012115 The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break. For the Fed, the fear of inflation is far less worrisome. Conventional monetary ...

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2015 SOTU: The Robin-Hood Distribution Plan
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 20, 2015

Tax-Brackets-1913-Present-012015 Tonight the President will give his annual State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress. To be honest, this isn't a speech about the current state of the economy but more of a promotional platform for the President's agenda for the next year.  The reality is that the majority of th...

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5 Things To Ponder: A View Of A Correction
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 15, 2015

5-Things-Extra It has been a rough start to a new year as all of the gains following the end of the Federal Reserve's flagship "QE-3" campaign have been erased.   As I discussed yesterday, there is currently little concern by the majority of Wall Street analysts that anything is currently wrong with the mar...

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