Think Like A Bear, Invest Like A Bull

I am traveling today but had some interesting questions posed to me during my recent presentation. However, one really drove to...

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Some Thoughts On Long Term Investing

The most valuable commodity that we all have is "time." While the markets may have recently hit "all-time" highs, for the...

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Fox 26: Why The Fed Won't Raise Rates This Year

I spent a few minutes with my friends at Fox 26 Houston yesterday discussing the FOMC's recent two day meeting and why the Fed...

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Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors

Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how...

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The Math Of Loss

Business Insider recently published an article suggesting that if you missed the recent short covering rally then you made a...

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10 Investment Quotes To Live By

As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue...

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Rising Interest Rates & Long Term Stock Returns

With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous...

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The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?

There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the...

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Is The BLS Overstating Jobs

This morning there is a litany of articles on employment growth since the end of the last recession. (See here, here and here for...

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Featured Articles

Written by Lance Roberts | Dec. 30, 2014
falling-energy-costs-and-economic-impacts "If you repeat a falsehood long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact." In the financial markets and economics it is a common occurrence that the media and commentators will latch on to a statement that supports a cognitive bias...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan. 14, 2015
5-charts-for-fully-invested-bearsYesterday, I discussed some interesting viewpoints relating to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. Part of that discussion was focused on a recent interview with famed Morgan Stanley strategist Gerard Minack who made a statement...
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Browse Blog Categories

5 Things To Ponder: GDP - Love It Or List It
Written by Lance Roberts | May. 01, 2015

5-Things-Extra My wife is a huge reality television show junkie, and despite male macho commentary to the contrary, every "happily" married man knows that it is "she" who controls the remote. Therefore, as a consequence of remaining "happily" married, I wind up watching more reality television than I would like. I...

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3 Things: Just The Weather, Deflator, Import Warning
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 30, 2015

Core-Capex-MoMChange-032615 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 29, 2015

Fed-Survey-2013-NetWorthbyAge-091014 There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come. No, I am not talking about the next Lehman event or the next fina...

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Margin Debt: A Variety Of Measures Suggest Caution
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 28, 2015

Margin-Debt-SP500-Events-042715 Yesterday, I discussed the extreme levels of nominal margin debt in the financial markets which generated a quite extensive list of questions and comments. Many of the comments suggested different methods of analyzing margin debt that I thought I would share with you. Let's start with yesterday's a...

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Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 27, 2015

SP500-Consolidation-042715 Last week, I stated the market was approaching a fairly important decision point. To wit: "As shown in the chart below, the market has been remained trapped in a tightening pattern of higher lows and lower highers. This type of action is like the compression of spring. In the next few days, the m...

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5 Things To Ponder: Market Soup
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 24, 2015

5-Things-Extra With first quarter's earnings season launching into full swing it is interesting to see just how many companies are beating earnings expectations. Of course, these are the current downwardly revised earnings expectations that are being beat, but they are beating them nonetheless. However, if we just...

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3 Things: Kass, Rosie and Short
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 23, 2015

Stocks-GDP-AvgGrowth-042315 ["3 Things" is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to e...

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Market Decision Point Approaching
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 22, 2015

SP500-Consolidation-042215-2 I have frequently written about the fallacy of long-term investment objectives and actual investor behaviors. As repeatedly shown by Dalbar studies, despite what investors and advisors say about long-term investing, the reality is that actions clearly speak of much shorter-term realities. This is w...

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BofA Is Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Markets
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 21, 2015

Secular-Markets-Crestmont-042115 Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bu...

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2015 Value Investor Forum Presentation
Written by Lance Roberts | Apr. 20, 2015

Buy-Fear-Sell-Greed This past weekend, I presented at the 2015 Annual Value Forum InvestFest. It was a great experience, and I had the opportunity to engage in some very stimulating and educational conversations. While many of the presentations at the conference were very investment focused, I stepped back into a broa...

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